"Nineveh, we are coming!"

and I'm back in the fight!

As will be apparent from the lack of posts recently, I have been taken unawares by an illness which has made me re-prioritise my activities. I am on the mend now and should be getting back to normal over the next couple of weeks.

While I have been contemplating my navel, the real world has moved on and the offensive in Mosul has continued to play out. 

Mosul (New Statesman)

I have concentrated recently on figuring out the ISF/Coalition order of battle to get a fix on the scale of the fighting and what level of unit I need to represent. Although it will produce quite a few units, I'm likely to go for battalion. My notes are now complete (for the moment) and you can find them here.  

Advancing ISF forces (NBC News)

I am massively impressed by the quality of the planning that has gone into the offensive and the complexity of the operation itself, especially managing disparate and competing partners, and difficult external stakeholders. I don't think we have seen anything this difficult since D-Day.

Next steps are to finish the map and get on with the rules!

Its progress Jim...

but not as we know it!

Apart from work, which has me buried at the moment, I have been getting on with the Mosul game. Lots to do but here is a first shot of the map.

Hopefully this looks familiar if you are from Mosul! The bunkers are my attempt to reflect the barricade line that ISIS have built north of the airport. 

As with Ramadi, I'm using the M44 scenario editor to sketch out the map. I have also determined to use the same system as Ramadi. I think it should work well.

Now the framework for the campaign has emerged more clearly I can get designing instead of havering!

A couple of interesting things have also come my way which are worth a look:

• Crossfire Lite (ugh!): This looks good and is on the Freewargames site.
• Orders of battle...: A blogspot with Crossfire, KISS and other OOBs. Really good!  

More Mosul.....

Real news

I'm running behind the curve on the battle as it develops. However, here are some interesting things to note about how the fighting is going.

1. Bait and switch

Immediately prior to the offensive starting the northern and eastern flanks for Mosul were held predominantly by Peshmerga forces. They have been historically under trained and under armed. Much work has been done on both fronts recently but there was a general consensus that they were not going to spearhead the assault on Mosul, not least because leaving the Kurds in control of the city would be politically inconvenient.

Smart money, including mine, was that ISF would drive straight up the corridor from the south along the Tigris valley. This is partly because ISF are on the end of a long supply line from Baghdad but also because it allows them to use the full force of their regular army.

It is now clear that on 17 October ISF switched significant forces including CTS and US SF with tank support (IA) as well as US Apache attack helicopters to the eastern flank across the Tigris. 

ISW reports:

"The CTS’s positioning in Kurdish terrain is one of the results of a U.S.-brokered agreement between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Iraqi Government in August and will set the CTS up to breach Mosul’s city limits from the northeast."

There appear to be around 100 US SF engaged with ISF and Peshmerga both as advisors and JTACs.

2. The Bridge

US engineers have helped the IA to build a floating bridge across the Tigris below Mosul. Here is a brilliant transcript of a press conference which is worth reading simply for fun. It also describes the building of the bridge which provides lateral mobility and allows the redeployment of troops to the eastern bank.

"The coalition provided significant training and logistics support to enable the ISF to accomplish these feats -- from the strategic left to bring in those bridges, to building a man-made lake at Camp Taji, so the ISF could rehearse the bridge installation tasks.

The bridge across the Tigris near Qayyarah was a significantly more difficult bridge to employ than the one in Ramadi, due to the size, speed and condition of the river and the enemy situation in the area.

COL. GARVER: The use of the bridge connecting the west and east sides of the Tigris, and connecting Qayyarah West air base and Makhmur will greatly improve maneuverability and shorten lines of communication for the ISF as they prepare for the eventual assault to liberate Mosul."

Extract from Press Conference

3. Peshmerga

There is more than one sort of Peshmerga. I'll write more fully about this in due course. However, the Peshmerga forces closest to Mosul are those of the KDP. What is surprising is that forces of the PUK, a rival Kurdish political party, have been allowed to move into the southern area of the eastern back to support CTS in their clearance of the eastern bank.

The two key Peshmerga forces are Yakray 80 (KDP) and Yakray 70 (PUK). I estimate these at best as brigade sized units. It is rare to see both this level of offensive activity from the Kurds but also their close collaboration, although I suspect this is carefully choreographed by others.

4. Highway 2

The assault currently making good progress is that straight down Highway 2 from the east. My annotated Google map above shows very steady progress into the outskirts of Mosul. The forces on this axis appear to consist of Yakray 70, a brigade force from IA 16th Division plus CTS and US SF.

Bartella

We can expect that concentric attacks will develop further with Yakray 80 and CTS troops advancing from the NE via Bashiqa and the ISF main force advancing from the south. Note that the main route for escaping civilians is to the South and the need to deal with displaced persons is a big issue for the advancing ISF.

As with the Ramadi and Fallujah battles, ISF appear to be leaving an exit route for ISIS, in this case to the west into an unpopulated area. Also, as in previous battles, the objective may be to reduce resistance in the defended area and then allow air assets to destroy escaping ISIS forces. 

5. Force estimates

AP estimates the forces involved to be:

ISF: 25,000, including Peshmerga, with 100 US SF.
ISIS: 1500 to 2500 in the outer defended balt around Mosul plus 3-5000 in Mosul itself. There is evidence that senior staff and specialists have already fled the area.

By the way, the BBC online news is excellent, as is AP's.

Mosul (2)

getting a shift on!

That's me, not just the offensive.

ISIS have set fire to the Sulphur plant in Mosul (CNN)

I have now made a page for the Mosul work in progress (here). I have updated my draft. Still early days but I'm learning a lot thanks to help from chums.

Another CNN shot of the Sulphur Plant conflagration

I'm aiming to crack on with this over the next few days. Real time is quite hard work.

By the way, I reconsidered my rude comments about the Daily Mail in the first draft, then decided I was quite right and they are awful. Nuff said!

Mosul....

it begins!

As with my game on the Battle for Ramadi, I have been planning to do a similar piece of work on the Mosul operation. It will follow on very similar lines. I intend to develop a real time view of the battle and then develop a simulation that will help us all understand what is going on.  

For various reasons I feel in a very serious frame of mind (the male menopause perhaps!) so don't expect as many jokes as usual. Hopefully this will wear off soon!

The first shot is here, rough and ready but lots more to come!   

New Desert Eagle stuff...

it's quite good!

NSyA top brass promo pic

Well I think so anyway! I've been doing quite a bit of work recently on the New Syrian Army (NSyA) to generate a first army list for DE. I have been surprised by how complicated the internal wiring is for Dragon Rampant and converting it into something it is not intended for is fraught with complications. Nevertheless, I have produced two things:

• An army list description which is, as far as I can see, pretty much up to date (within the last week);
• A very first draft set of unit characteristics.

You can find both of these on the DE page here. Loads more work to do on these but nearing a first playtest on a table with some counters!

My thoughts have been drawn to the impending battle for Mosul, Op. FATAH (CONQUEST). Over Christmas last I worked on the Ramadi game and found myself drawn into the conflict in quite a personal way. I was encouraged to do a similar piece of work on the recent battle for Fallujah and, in fact, have done a lot of research on the fighting as information has become available. Although I will return to Fallujah at a future point, the Mosul operation will have enormous consequences so my intention now is to work up a similar game to the Ramadi one but looking at Mosul in real time. 

Anyone with concerns about wargaming and real life should look away now because Mosul will be my immediate focus. It will also generate what young people call factions(?) for DE. I have spent some very interesting hours looking at the Peshmerga and my level of understanding has substantially increased. The ability of wargaming to gain insight into the real world is vastly overlooked so my next few months I believe will be a real journey. At the end of which I'll probably revert to playing Stratego but, hey ho, who knows!